Learning - October 2018
October was one of the choppiest trading month I have seen in last few years. It does comes with a learning. Here is what I learnt from October-
Some moves by market are pure abnormal counter to the on going trend. That deviation always revert.
Contrary to the belief that you don't need a direction in option writing, direction is needed. There is only one price point where market will expire. If it is below your expectation point, then its bearish, if above then bullish. Take that decision in advance.
When direction is not clear, don't trade.
After a trend, there is a period of sideways consolidation where we have fake breakouts on the lower time frame. Identifying and getting out of the wrong side early is the key.
When VIX is high, its better to remain at sell side. Vix generally takes 30 to 50 days to cool down.
PCR below .50 is a sign of a very strong rebound. Downtrend may continue after rebound.
Calenders are beneficial near the expiry.