Analysis and Trade Plan - 9 July 2019
We are bearish for now. No doubt about it.
I am expecting a little negative opening for the markets. A little negative opening will be good for my positions.
We fell 250 and 850 points on Nifty and Bank Nifty respectively. With negative bias, I expect a little sideways movement now.
Fall was attributed to various provisions in Budget related to taxing FPI's and increasing retail participation in equities.
Nifty had a crucial support at 11600 which is broken now. We may drift towards 11100 levels where the 200 day moving average is.
Future activity was very less on Nifty.
PCR at 0.33 is super bearish and max pain fell by 250 points to 11650.
Change in total call OI was 7 million yesterday with heavy call writing from 11600/11650/11700/11750/11800.
Any bounce in Nifty is an opportunity to sell right now.
Bank Nifty has a crucial support at 30200. It is the gap high. If broken may drift Bank Nifty more lower.
Future activity in Bank Nifty was negligible.
PCR at 0.42 is bearish and max pain moved down to 30600. Call writing was visible at all strikes with hardly and put writing.
Any bounce will be sold into. Once market opens we will have fresh level to decide on where to short.
I am trading with bearish to sideways bias.
Optimum strategy will be to do a call calendar or a call ratio spreads for now.