Analysis and Trade Plan - 4 September 2019
10870 was my shorting point yesterday on Nifty. 27100 on Bank Nifty.
When market stayed down till after noon, I tested by initiating 11050 CE 05 Sep 2019, 11200 12 Sep 2019 CE calendar spread.
When 10850 was broken I initiated 11000 CE 05 Sep 2019, 11150 12 Sep 2019 CE calendar spread.
Since market fell more than expected, I rolled down 28400 CE to first 27800 and later to 27600 CE.
Thankfully, SGX Nifty is little up right now.
Yesterday's mayhem was attributed to latest GDP figures of 5% along with further depreciation in Rupee.
Nifty and Bank Nifty witnessed short buildup.
PCR is at 0.39 and 0.54 for Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively. Its bearish.
India Vix rose by 10% yesterday.
Max pain on monthly charts is steady but is moving down on weekly charts.
On Nifty, collectively 6.4 million OI was added where as 4 lakh put were collectively unwinded.
10800 and 10900 are still the strikes with maximum put volume.
I think 10800 is going to be a very tough support which wont be easy to break. It has a collective OI of 2.8 million. Also monthly OI data is not bearish right now. More calls were written on monthly but if one sees the total OI, then puts are 1.5 times the calls. So I think 10600-10800 is where we can be forming a base.
Bank Nifty also seems to be forming a base around 26500 levels.
It is definitely not the time to go long right now.
I have updated the trade sheet and can be accessed from the link below.