Analysis and Trade Plan - 4 February 2019

• This budget was middle class and farmer focused.

• The kind of review it is receiving bodes well for Modi Government.

• I did not trade on Friday because of expected volatility.

• RBI Bi-Monthly Monetary policy starts tomorrow and will conclude on expiry day. We have the commentary around 02:30 pm. So post that we can expect wild movement.

• Nifty 50 was up and failed to cross 11000 again on budget day. It was the 6th retest of the resistance.

• Bank Nifty on the contrary fell.

• I have not decided any direction to trade right now. Nifty and Bank Nifty moves with each other. On Friday, we had one index up by 1 percent and other down by 1 percent.

• While Nifty has all the data hinting at bullish movement with Pain, PCR, Option Writing and Future OI; Bank Nifty is bearish on the same parameters.

• India Vix has come down sharply to 15.72

• Rupee has again come into focus as it has stabilized and breaking to upside which is not good.

• Crude Oil has also formed a base and is forming and inverted H&S. Both these factor can be bad for indian markets.

• Overall, I would like to be bullish at the current moment. But I need more trigger on technical and derivative data.

Rohit Katwal