Analysis and Trade Plan - 4 February 2019
This budget was middle class and farmer focused.
The kind of review it is receiving bodes well for Modi Government.
I did not trade on Friday because of expected volatility.
RBI Bi-Monthly Monetary policy starts tomorrow and will conclude on expiry day. We have the commentary around 02:30 pm. So post that we can expect wild movement.
Nifty 50 was up and failed to cross 11000 again on budget day. It was the 6th retest of the resistance.
Bank Nifty on the contrary fell.
I have not decided any direction to trade right now. Nifty and Bank Nifty moves with each other. On Friday, we had one index up by 1 percent and other down by 1 percent.
While Nifty has all the data hinting at bullish movement with Pain, PCR, Option Writing and Future OI; Bank Nifty is bearish on the same parameters.
India Vix has come down sharply to 15.72
Rupee has again come into focus as it has stabilized and breaking to upside which is not good.
Crude Oil has also formed a base and is forming and inverted H&S. Both these factor can be bad for indian markets.
Overall, I would like to be bullish at the current moment. But I need more trigger on technical and derivative data.