Analysis and Trade Plan - 4 February 2019

  • This budget was middle class and farmer focused.

  • The kind of review it is receiving bodes well for Modi Government.

  • I did not trade on Friday because of expected volatility.

  • RBI Bi-Monthly Monetary policy starts tomorrow and will conclude on expiry day. We have the commentary around 02:30 pm. So post that we can expect wild movement.

  • Nifty 50 was up and failed to cross 11000 again on budget day. It was the 6th retest of the resistance.

  • Bank Nifty on the contrary fell.

  • I have not decided any direction to trade right now. Nifty and Bank Nifty moves with each other. On Friday, we had one index up by 1 percent and other down by 1 percent.

  • While Nifty has all the data hinting at bullish movement with Pain, PCR, Option Writing and Future OI; Bank Nifty is bearish on the same parameters.

  • India Vix has come down sharply to 15.72

  • Rupee has again come into focus as it has stabilized and breaking to upside which is not good.

  • Crude Oil has also formed a base and is forming and inverted H&S. Both these factor can be bad for indian markets.

  • Overall, I would like to be bullish at the current moment. But I need more trigger on technical and derivative data.

Rohit Katwal

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