Analysis and Trade Plan - 31 December 2019
India Vix model on Nifty suggests that an immediate top is at place on Nifty now.
Another Standard Deviation based model is also suggesting an immediate top is in place with 12300 as an immediate resistance or stop now.
Open Interest on Nifty right now is historical low. No fresh positions or interest is being shown so this further confirms the theory of an immediate top.
Trend is still up. When I say trend is up and immediate top has formed that means we have entered a sideways phase and supports can be tested.
Support on Nifty is between 12150-12200 levels and 12300 is resistance.
Max Pain is at 12250 and PCR at 1.26 is bullish.
India Vix increased by 5% today.
On call side 30 lakh fresh OI was added. 9 Lakh puts were added on weeklies. 12300-12400 calls witnessed writing. 12200 is the put strike with max OI and witnessed unwinding. So we may see a breach of that level tomorrow.
Bank Nifty witnessed long unwinding.
Max Pain is steady at 32400 and PCR at 0.95 is sideways.
From 32500-33000 there was heavy call writing on Bank Nifty. On puts, 32000 and 32100 witnessed little put writing. Trend or activity of tomorrow will be crucial.
32050-32200 should act as a good support.
We do not have any major global cues awaited so market may enter consolidation mode.
I am trading with Sideways bias for now.