Analysis and Trade Plan - 31 December 2019

  • India Vix model on Nifty suggests that an immediate top is at place on Nifty now.



  • Another Standard Deviation based model is also suggesting an immediate top is in place with 12300 as an immediate resistance or stop now.



  • Open Interest on Nifty right now is historical low. No fresh positions or interest is being shown so this further confirms the theory of an immediate top.



  • Trend is still up. When I say trend is up and immediate top has formed that means we have entered a sideways phase and supports can be tested.

  • Support on Nifty is between 12150-12200 levels and 12300 is resistance.

  • Max Pain is at 12250 and PCR at 1.26 is bullish.

  • India Vix increased by 5% today.

  • On call side 30 lakh fresh OI was added. 9 Lakh puts were added on weeklies. 12300-12400 calls witnessed writing. 12200 is the put strike with max OI and witnessed unwinding. So we may see a breach of that level tomorrow.

  • Bank Nifty witnessed long unwinding.

  • Max Pain is steady at 32400 and PCR at 0.95 is sideways.

  • From 32500-33000 there was heavy call writing on Bank Nifty. On puts, 32000 and 32100 witnessed little put writing. Trend or activity of tomorrow will be crucial.

  • 32050-32200 should act as a good support.

  • We do not have any major global cues awaited so market may enter consolidation mode.

  • I am trading with Sideways bias for now.

Rohit Katwal



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