Analysis and Trade Plan - 29 May 2019
I was bullish for last few days after NDA victory, so for last two days when market went down, I was still bullish and price action confirmed it.
Yesterday also, I was bullish for most part of the day. When we broke 31400 and 11900 many times, did I change my stance to bearish and that too till expiry.
I closed all my bullish positions. Currently I am holding Bank Nifty -5X31900 +1X31800 call ratio spread, Bank Nifty -5X31700 +5X32000 bear call spread, Nifty -10X12000 +10X12100 bear call spread. It was tough decision given the price action was really confusing. But in the end, market moved in my direction. Also, yesterdays dow jones movement was bearish and sentiment was bearish too.
Dow Jones again fell by 1% on renewed trade tensions between US China. China is believed to be banning export of rare earth metals to US, off which it holds 80% world production.
SGX Nifty is little negative right now. Even if Nifty remains negative for first few hours, my positions will be in profit.
Major Asian Indices are down this morning.
On Nifty, whatever option writing was there on put, yesterdays call writing and put unwinding was collectively more suggesting a bearish bias.
Technically Nifty on Daily and 2 Hourly charts may be taking a retracement as they both are bullish. Even 30 minute chart is sideways right now.
PCR is bearish and Max Pain is at 11800.
Upper level to look out for is 11960 and lower level is 11800.
Bank Nifty showed greater strength post election move, but yesterday's move is followed by large call writing at all strikes and put unwinding at some immediate strikes. It is a bearish sign atleast for 1 or 2 days.
On technical charts we are bullish on daily and hourly but 30 minute chart has gone sideways.
PCR is highly bearish right now. Upper level to look out is 31500 and lower level to look out is 31150.
I am trading with sideways to bearish bias.
Here is the glimpse of my cumulative net positions along with clients.
I have also updated the google sheet for trades that have been taken.