Analysis and Trade Plan - 28 March 2019
India Vix shot up to 17.05 yesterday. Increased volatility at the top made me cautious and I was ready to reverse positions.
Shorts were added to Nifty futures.
There is no direction to this market right now. At least not in the last week of March right now. Its purely inventory management.
Two days back it was put writing. Today it is call writing and put unwinding.
I think Nifty will expire around 11400 this expiry.
11550 is the level to look for any further upside. On the downside 11300 needs to be watched.
Bank Nifty did not witness any long buildup, but pain moved up to 29800 despite fall. I think it was due to gapup and VWAP play during the day.
There is even balance of Puts and Call.
Technically we are bullish but data suggests sideways.
I will go with technicals for now. If we bounce, I will take a bullish view. If market retests and bounce from 29880 then also we are bullish. But any break below that we may head sideways.
SGX Nifty is sideways in the morning. There was not much jump in the Dow Jones either. It remained bearish to sideways.
Broader trend is down, but we may be volatile for the day due to monthly expiry.
I will try to hold my positions till expiry ends. But if any sold option heads below 1 for bank nifty and 05. for Nifty, I will rather exit.
I will do expiry trading in small quantity.
Bounce at this time can be swift. Bank Nifty is standing on technical support, one which should be buying level theoretically. Nifty is sideways to bearish. So we should witness a market giving whisaws to both the sides.
Open positions are:
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