Analysis and Trade Plan - 28 March 2019

  • India Vix shot up to 17.05 yesterday. Increased volatility at the top made me cautious and I was ready to reverse positions.

  • Shorts were added to Nifty futures.

  • There is no direction to this market right now. At least not in the last week of March right now. Its purely inventory management.

  • Two days back it was put writing. Today it is call writing and put unwinding.

  • I think Nifty will expire around 11400 this expiry.

  • 11550 is the level to look for any further upside. On the downside 11300 needs to be watched.

  • Bank Nifty did not witness any long buildup, but pain moved up to 29800 despite fall. I think it was due to gapup and VWAP play during the day.

  • There is even balance of Puts and Call.

  • Technically we are bullish but data suggests sideways.

  • I will go with technicals for now. If we bounce, I will take a bullish view. If market retests and bounce from 29880 then also we are bullish. But any break below that we may head sideways.

  • SGX Nifty is sideways in the morning. There was not much jump in the Dow Jones either. It remained bearish to sideways.



Conclusion

  • Broader trend is down, but we may be volatile for the day due to monthly expiry.

  • I will try to hold my positions till expiry ends. But if any sold option heads below 1 for bank nifty and 05. for Nifty, I will rather exit.

  • I will do expiry trading in small quantity.

  • Bounce at this time can be swift. Bank Nifty is standing on technical support, one which should be buying level theoretically. Nifty is sideways to bearish. So we should witness a market giving whisaws to both the sides.

Open positions are:

22 March 2019 - 28 March 2019.xlsx


Rohit Katwal

Telegram Channel - https://t.me/rkatwaltradingupdates

Twitter - www.twitter.com/rohit_katwal

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