Analysis and Trade Plan - 26 March 2019

  • I was expecting a 500 point fall in bank nifty and post 120 point fall another 30 40 point fall on Nifty. But that didn't happen and market remained sideways post that.

  • Overall trend is bullish. Bank Nifty may touch 29000-29100 before it can resume its upside. Nifty my touch 11250 before it resumes upside.

  • SGX Nifty has been flat since yesterday and there has not been any major development. So my positions will be okay. Any risk to positions will come if trend continuation to upside comes. Move may be swift and I will constantly looking for reversal signals on lower time frames.

  • Rupee and Crude Oil has been stable for now.

  • It is last week of expiry and we can expect volatility as positions are rolled over.

  • Huge calls were written at Nifty 11400 levels so I think 11450 can act as a resistance zone.

  • Call writing was done in Bank Nifty also, but if any trend reversal comes then ensuing put writing will be even greater. Support is around 29000 level.

  • It happens many times when suddenly trend continuation wave comes and it is very swift, so I have to be very aggressive with the positions right now

Conclusion:

  • I am trading with sideways bias right now.

  • Around 29000 on Bank Nifty and 11250 on Nifty, I will execute some calendar put spread as I strongly believe it to be level where bounce back can come.

  • I will go with the flow.

22 March 2019 - 28 March 2019.xlsx


Rohit Katwal


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