Analysis and Trade Plan - 26 February 2019

  • Whatever we gained yesterday will go down the drain today at opening.

  • Reports of Indian Air force jet crossing the LOC will impact negatively on Nifty and Bank Nifty.

  • SGX Nifty is already down 80 points.

  • Yesterday, Nifty Future shed 2 Million OI. I am thinking that is this coincidence. Was it short covering before we went bullish or positions were left because somewhere someone knew about the strikes.

  • Bank Nifty too saw short covering.

  • Although Put Writing was there in both Nifty and Bank Nifty. Lets see, if Bank Nifty takes support at 27000 and Nifty at 10800. Both the points are crucial.

  • Till yesterday all my positions were fine. It is going to be a painful first hour.

  • Crude Oil fell 3.5% yesterday which is a good news for India. Also, rupee is stable.

  • Although Put Writing was there in both Nifty and Bank Nifty, I can see 150-200 points gap down in Bank Nifty and 70-80 point gap down in Nifty. Below that is a worst case scenario and above that is a best case scenario for now.

  • There is going to be a lot of firefighting today.

Rohit Katwal

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