Analysis and Trade Plan - 25 March 2019
Looking at current and next month future OI buildup, two things are clear. First, it is consolidation. Second, future positions are being rolled over to next month. 2 Million in OI decreased this month and 2 Million in OI added to next month.
Max pain is steady at 11300 and PCR at 1.4 is bullish. There is massive call writing at 11600. 11400 seems to be point of fight and next action around this level will decide where market will go.
Whenever market consolidates after a trend, consolidation is in slow motion and trend continuation moves are violent. Currently trend is up on daily and two hourly charts while 30 minute chart is sideways. Any move to the upside will be swift.
SGX Nifty fell 63 points on Friday as Dow Jones fell 1.7%. It will have an impact on Nifty while opening. But eventually we may recover after that. Also, it has been 1 trading session since news of some recession indicator came and it is too early to judge whether this consolidation will turn into a bear phase.
I am currently not looking at PCR much for direction. It might be 1.40 but majority of puts were written when market was highly bullish. They still exist in the market. If one looks at OTM Options PCR, it is currently at 1 which is sideways. I will go with that.
11500 is crucial to be broken for upside and sideways movement. While 11400 is crucial for any downside move.
On Bank Nifty, we are bullish on higher time frames but 30 minute chart is sideways. Also the fall was not swift and rather slow.
Max Pain is at 29500 and PCR at .91 is sideways.
Call writing was more than put writing.
For upside i am looking at break of 29750. Below 29400, my views might change temporarily.
Crude Oil and Rupee are in India's favor right now.
Any downside or gap down movement might occur from global news and that needs to be seen on Monday.
I am not holding any direction right now. We will have to give market 1 or 2 hours to decide for next direction. Initially I might only adjust for my positions or do hedging.
Update - Asian Markets are bleeding heavily. Nikkei fell more than 3%. It is going to be a messy start for our markets.