Analysis and Trade Plan - 25 February 2019

  • There is some ease around the US-China trade talks which might keep markets positive.

  • SGX Nifty is up 15 points and so does the other markets.

  • Crude Oil is inching higher everyday, but is in safe zone for now. Any sharp spike in upper direction which is possible may hit panic nerve.

  • Rupee is stable and sideways.

  • On Friday, despite fall in Bank Nifty and sideways movement in Nifty, India Vix fell 3.75% which is good. It is below 16 level again.

  • Overall trend on Nifty is sideways and bullish on 30 minute charts. Even when it is sideways, we have hit the bottom and may test highs.

  • Max Pain for Nifty has moved from 10700 to 10800 and steady. PCR at 1.09 is stable and sideways for now. There are more chances of bullish movement.

  • For Bank Nifty, overall trend is sideways to bearish. Friday's fall was attributed to Kotak Bank and with that too, the fall was not that great. I am hoping for little upward movement today.

  • Recent high of 27053 is to be keenly watch. It will be a very good reversal point for my positions. On the other hand, 26800 can signal trend continuation.

Trade Plan

  • I am currently holding 27400, 27500 calls which have already lost much of the premium. Unless Bank Nifty opens with huge gap-up, these should remain fine and I may even book profit on these.

  • I am also holding 26600 puts and may come in danger with huge gap-down. For normal to mild gap-down, I may be safe. If I feel like a reversal is coming, I might exit calls and add some bull put spread. 26940 will be very good point to consider going long.


Conclusion

I am currently trading with sideways to bullish. Haven't made up my mind yet. Next positions might depend on how the market unfolds today.



Rohit Katwal

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