Analysis and Trade Plan - 24 January 2019
Finally we gave into the resistance that was playing in for last few weeks. It has been a tough week. We were in a very tight range. One has to keep his mind open on direction despite data: price action is ultimate because in weekly expiry, data can be wrong. When market hit the bottom of 27400, I went long. Along the way, I shifted my positions many times. Some gave me profit and some gave me loss but overall positions were comfortable. Data along the way was suggesting either consolidation or distribution. I think as the budget day is approaching, we will face uncertainty.
We have officially entered a sideways phase on daily charts.
Close below 27150 can be the start of down trend for formation of Lower Lows.
We are bearish on 2 hourly charts.
We are bearish on 30 minutes chart.
Its first time after many weeks that the selloff has been intense which means it is going to stay.
India Vix jumping to 18 was a clue that sell off might come. But it was coupled with margin increasing news, so I ignored that.
Activity on futures was subdued.
Call writing was intense. Max OI is at 27500 suggesting we won't close above that point for now.
Tomorrow we may see expiry between 27000-27300.
All my positions are good below 27600, and I think we won't touch that point tomorrow.
Pain has moved down to 27300. PCR is at .63 and has came down finally.
If by any chance we open gapup tomorrow, I will exit my positions and will be done.
If gap down, then I will hold till expiry.
If normal opening then I will wait for an hour. If day high is broken at any point, I will exit.
We are sideways to bullish right now. One day of fall does not constitute a trend change. It changes slowly. It has to trade below 10800 for some time for confirmation.
On 2 hourly basis we can see some support at 10800. If that is gone, then we can see 10700.
Upside remains intact at 11000.
On 30 minutes we are bearish and we have what seems to be a head and shoulder.
Surprisingly on Nifty also, we did not have any short addition. OI is intact.
Pain is intact at 10900 and PCR is sideways at 1.11.
We saw huge call writing of 1 million each at 10900 and 11000. Few days back we had put writing, which was being unwinded for last few days.
Right now, we are short term bearish.
I am currently keeping sideways to bearish bias.