Analysis and Trade Plan - 19 August 2019

  • SGX Nifty is up by 17 points today hinting at a sideways opening for the market.

  • Economic times, from last week has been publishing article that finance ministry is going to announce a stimulus package and there is no concrete word on it.

  • Finance Ministry has asked bank representatives to give inputs on how to achieve $5 Trillion economy and meeting with Industry body is still on.

  • Prime Minister is on foreign visit right now.

  • Apart from speculation, we do not have any thing concrete.

  • Dow Jones recovered by 300 points which is nothing compared to a 800 point fall we witnessed. Trend is bearish.

  • INR has weakened to 71.15 levels and can further move down.

  • Daily trend on Nifty and Bank Nifty is down and we have turned sideways on 2 hourly and 30 minutes chart.

  • Nifty and Bank Nifty futures witnessed some long buildup. We have to see whether it can sustain or not.

  • Option data is still sideways with PCR at 1 for Nifty and Bank Nifty. Pain is still moving down which is bearish. India Vix continues to be on higher side.

  • We have formed a triangle pattern and breakout to either side can come any time. Although given the bottom of the bearish market, we can expect some random gapup and gap down in coming days.

  • Upper levels for Nifty are 11080/11180. Downside can be 11950/11900.

  • Upper levels for Bank Nifty are 28250/28600. Downside support is at 27725.

  • Times right now are tough. We cannot anticipate any thing. Data seems sideways to bearish, but any unprecedented announcement by Government or some global cue can trigger a rally to either side. And rally to either side is difficult to predict. Its like a coin toss situation.

  • I will wait for first hour or two for market to settle and then decide. I will do calendar spreads. I will be quick to change directions if need arises.


Rohit Katwal

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