Analysis and Trade Plan - 16 October 2019

  • Dow Jones jumped 1% yesterday as the earning season starts.

  • There was speculation of an orderly Brexit.

  • Asian Markets are trading higher.

  • SGX Nifty is up by 40 points hinting at a positive opening for Indian Markets.

  • Brent Crude has steadied between $58 and $60.

  • Exports dipped by 6.57% while imports contracted by 13% showing weakening domestic demand.

  • IMF has also slashed india's growth target to 6.1% from 7% previously.

  • There are no major results to be declared today so market may remain steady on earnings front.

  • FIIs were net buyers for 436+ crores while DIIs were net buyers of 900+ crores giving us a net buy of 1300+ crore.


Nifty

  • Currently Nifty seems to be resuming its bullish trend on daily charts. Introduction of corporate tax changed the trend completely after which Nifty went into sideways mode on Daily charts. It might have resumed the uptrend. Although it is never a straight drive up, but seems like it right now.

  • On 2 hourly charts we are bullish. On 30 minute charts also we are bullish. We are forming a continuous higher high, higher low pattern.

  • Nifty futures witnessed long buildup yesterday.

  • There was total option OI change of 44 lakh out of which 43 lakh was added to put side.

  • Put writing was evident throughout the day on 11300 11350 and 11400 strikes while call writing was very little.

  • Strikes of 11400, 11450 11500 witnessed long buildup.

  • On Monthly options, there was equally good writing on 11300 and 11400 puts so rally should hold for now.

  • Max Pain moved up a little on weekly data to 11400 with PCR at 1.4 giving a bullish look. Max Pain on Monthly is still steady so I think this rally might extend till 11500 and may settle a bit.

I have some calendars and straddles right now which pose no immediate danger to position. Let us see how intraday market develops for tomorrow.


Rohit Katwal



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