Analysis and Trade Plan - 16 July 2019

  • Speculation in FNO is dead low right now. It was not expected atleast after budget session.

  • India Vix at 12 is also at its lowest. Premiums due to it are also low right now.

  • Nifty broke 11600 few days back and is filling the gap right now it created post exit polls. Bank Nifty is still stuck in the range. If 30200 is broken, Nifty will follow towards 11420.

  • Formation on daily charts is more likely for a fall. With Vix at historical low value, for it to rise, market needs to fall. It is just an assumption.

  • Any meaningful rally can now come as the earning season unravels now.

  • After 23rd May, it is 8th week when we are still in a sideways market.

  • Trend on SGX Nifty is hinting at a little sideways to negative opening for the market.

  • Dow Jones closed flat yesterday.

  • Rupee and Crude Oil seem to be at comfortable levels.

  • Yesterday's upmove in Nifty was due to rise of Infy post results.

  • ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank ADR are down hinting at a flat to negative opening for Bank Nifty.

  • Asian Markets are trading flat to negative.

  • It is very difficult to speculate what is happening on Nifty or Bank Nifty futures right now. One day there is long unwinding and another day it is short covering. Looks like we are closing the July 2019 also on a sideways note itself.

  • Nifty pain moved up to 11600 yesterday and PCR also moved a little higher to 0.75.

  • Option OI Speculation was also less. On monthly options we saw put writing at 11500/11400/11300 strikes.

  • Bank Nifty future are also not giving any clear direction. There is short covering or long unwinding every day. Its either accumulation or distribution every day. With half the month gone and expiry on 25th July 2019, I am not expecting any major trend. In next week, there can be some sort of coverup rally.

  • Bank Nifty pain moved down to 30500 with PCR at 0.64 moving further down.

  • Call writing was visible on both weekly and monthly options with 30700 being the most actively written strikes.

  • I am trading with a negative to sideways bias for now.

  • It would be wise to do call calendars or ratio spreads right now.


I have taken following positions this expiry:

15 July 2019 - 18 July 2019.xlsx


Rohit Katwal

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