Analysis and Trade Plan - 15 October 2019

• SGX Nifty is up by 45 points, so we might have a little gapup.

• Dow Jones was sideways as US-China trade deal is just speculation and everyone knows that Trump can back track any time.

• Hindustan Unilever delivered results better than estimates. With 2% weightage in Nifty, it might have little impact on positive momentum. Well, if it moves up after results.

• Crude and INR are stable for now.

• FIIs were net buyers yesterday and DIIs were net sellers. But still we had a positive cash flow overall.

Nifty

• Nifty Futures witnessed short covering yesterday.

• We are sideways on Daily and 2 hourly charts. We are forming Higher High, Higher lows pattern. For half an hour, we broke out of the triangle and again entered a channel, so todays move will be crucial.

• Max Pain is steady at 11300 and pain at 0.99 is neutral hitning at a sideways market.

• Max calls are written at 11400 and max puts at 11300 and this has become a defending point for market. Yesterday, put writing was more but we need followup action else it may fizzle.

• Monthly option data is also mixed. Looks like market is waiting for a trigger.

I have stopped tracking Bank Nifty for some time now. Average range of Bank Nifty is more than 900 points for last 14 days which makes it a risky proposition. Nifty is still stable. I am looking for levels of 11400 to upside and 11280 for downside.

If market goes higher, I might assess the trend for my positions. If market starts to fall than I want to firefight the situation.

Rohit Katwal