Analysis and Trade Plan - 15 July 2019

  • I did not initiate any position in Nifty or Bank Nifty on Friday. Vix is very low at 12 ad premiums were down so it was not worth the over night risk.

  • China GDP came out at 6.2 which was within the estimates.

  • SGX Nifty is already up by more than 36 points. I am expecting a positive opening by our market.

  • Infosys result came post market hour and it will have impact on market today. Infosys ADR is up by 6%. It alone can add 40-50 points in Nifty.

  • Result of HDFC Bank as always are scheduled on 20 July 2019 i.e. Saturday. Atleast we are not having any event this week where it will affect Bank Nifty.

  • Nifty Future did not witness any major activity on Friday. OI came down, but it is too early to decide if it was long unwinding.

  • Max Pain is again moving down with PCR at 0.68 hinting at bearish sentiment right now.

  • Amount of call written on Nifty were double the amount of puts but still not enough to give a direction. Max OI seems to be at 11600 calls and 11500 puts.

  • Technically on daily charts we are bearish. On 120 minute charts, we are bearish. On 30 minute charts, we are in sideways channel.

  • Shorts were added to Bank Nifty.

  • Max Pain also moved down to 30600 with PCR hovering at 0.78. When market was at 30832, I gave a cautious call against taking a bullish position as we were near the upper part of the channel. In 5 minutes, market fell from that point to day low.

  • There was not much speculation in Options either.

  • We are headed for more sideways days, till we breakout of this channel with supportive data.

  • Good thing is that Dow Jones made all time high on Friday and that may lift the sentiment.

  • Reliance results are also scheduled later this week which may give a trigger to market. Till then, I am trading with sideways to bearish bias.

  • It is better to do calendar or ratio spreads at the moment.



Rohit Katwal

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