Analysis and Trade Plan - 13 May 2019

  • I do not intend to take any hurried trade today. Current technical state of Nifty is a technical nightmare. It is a pure sell signal with every chances of a dead cat bounce. Taking a trade at such point can be confusing.

  • India Vix is continuing to rise and has already touched 26.33 which is very high. We will have higher premiums and less decay. It also will give me chance to short options at a safer distance.

  • Weekly Expiry data on Friday is not clear as of now to take any decision. On options front, there was no speculation on calls or put side. OI Change was very less to ascertain any thing. PCR is 0.6 for Nifty and Bank Nifty which gives us an overall bearish view.

  • Nifty futures witnessed Long Unwinding, Bank Nifty futures witnessed Short Covering.

  • I will not be surprised if Nifty touches 11400 and Bank Nifty touched 29300. It will be an opportunity to sell at highs.

  • SGX Nifty is trading 17 points higher which gives me hint that Nifty might open a little higher. Indian Bank ADR's are up. HDFC Bank is up 1%. It will likely give a boost to Bank Nifty.

  • On Friday, despite failing of trade talks, DJI ended up 114 points. It was a sharp reversal from day's low which is kind of worrying. It can be an either trend change or a false bounce. Only time can tell.

  • Rupee has again started falling. Above 70.30 it can be in dangerous zone.

  • But crude oil is stable right now at $70.

  • Till now markets have been rattled by US China trade war. Now for the next 10 days, market will be rattled by results of election results.

  • We also have results pending for HDFC today. We will investor reaction to demise of ITC Chairman and its results.

  • SBI results were declared and stock will affect the movement of Bank Nifty today.

  • I am trading with bearish bias, but also ready to change with flow of market.


Rohit Katwal

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