Analysis and Trade Plan - 13 August 2019
Although initial trend on Nifty and Bank Nifty was strong but could not last. We witnessed short covering on Nifty and Bank Nifty.
First time in 29 sessions both FII and DII turned net buyers. Volume is less but positive.
Nifty Max Pain moved up a little but PCR is still sideways at 0.97 so we have to wait before turning bullish.
Nifty pain on monthly data is also at 11200 and moved up a bit with PCR at 1.21 hinting at bearish sentiment for now. We need to give some time and see whether it sustains.
11200 and 11300 Calls witnessed call writing while 11100 and 11000 witnessed put writing suggesting a little sideways movement for coming days.
There was equal strength on call and put side with 3.6 million contracts added to calls and put each which means indecision in the market. Its natural as we do need to form base before moving any where.
Max call OI is at 11200 and max put OI is at 11000 giving us a virtual range of 10950 and 11250 this expiry.
On monthly charts there was visible call unwinding. Puts were also unwind-ed but there was writing on 11100 and 10800 strikes.
Medium term we may see nifty move in a sideways to bullish momentum.
Max Pain for Bank Nifty weekly moved to 28400 and PCR to 1.19 suggesting some positive momentum but pain and PCR on monthly data is stagnant at 29000 and 0.81
More puts were written for weekly expiry compared to calls. Clearly the intermediate trend is up.
Despite little call writing and more put writing change in OI was almost same on call and puts that is close to 1 million suggesting a little sideways trend.
Trend in SGX Nifty suggest a little positive opening for the market.
Reliance AGM may bring some good news as it is an Index heavy weight.
Due to Hong Kong crisis, Argentina crisis, Asian Markets are trading weak. Given some good announcements by Reliance like debt reduction, we can defy that and remain bullish to sideways.
I am expecting market to be sideways to bullish. Given the global circumstances, it can change and I wont be surprised.