Analysis and Trade Plan - 12 February 2019

  • We ended down, but selling pressure was not intense.

  • Due to non existent selling pressure, I took counter trades. I took a Bull Put Spread and a Put Calendar.

  • Every time, when we are up, market gives a break to the downside below crucial level and gives a strong reversal. I think same might be happening right now. Even if it is not and it goes sideways, then time decay will help.

  • Due to introduction of Nifty weekly options, premiums have fallen drastically for Bank Nifty and there are not much premiums in Weekly Nifty options any way. So the game just got tougher.

  • Data and Technical points on Nifty are all bearish. PCR is below .80 and max pain is at 10900. All time frames are bearish.

  • I will be looking at 10980 and 10860 keenly for breakout in either direction.

  • Bank Nifty; I dont see any bearishness right now. We are bullish on 2 hourly and daily charts, so 30 minutes charts can turn very fast.

  • Data is almost neutral suggesting sideways movement.

  • I will be keeping an eye on 27310 and 27130 levels for breakout.


Rohit Katwal


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