Analysis and Trade Plan - 11 September 2019

  • If SGX Nifty is any clue then we might have a positive opening. Yesterday was holiday and SGX Nifty dipped to 10970 only to recover at previous levels. So there does not seem to be any negative concern right now. China data was negative but still markets managed to move higher.

  • American markets are sideways to positive right now on larger time frame.

  • Asian Markets are mostly positive.

  • USDINR has stabilized around 71.80 levels and may move further high in coming days.

  • Crude Oil has started to rise above $63 levels. Any further move up can brew trouble for our markets as rupee has also depreciated. It can further the economic problems of Fiscal Deficit.

  • On Monday, Nifty futures witnessed short covering.

  • Pain moved up to 11000 and PCR at 1.57 is hinting at a bullish sentiment for short term.

  • India Vix dropped below 16.

  • There was call unwinding from 10900-11000 and litle call writing. 10900-11000 also witnessed put writing. Total of 2 million in OI was added to puts side.

  • On monthly expiry also, 11000 calls saw unwinding while writing at 10900 and 10800 puts.

  • Bank Nifty witnessed long buildup.

  • Pain started to move up and PCR at 1.29 is bullish.

  • Put writing was visible among all strikes with little call writing.

  • My only concern is my -10900 12 Sep Put, +10750 19 Sep Put. I am hoping I don't have to exit it.

  • I plan to do strangles today or a some bear call spreads.

  • We may have a positive week, but I am concerned about weaker rupee and crude prices are starting to rise.

  • We also have to see what will be the effect of FM's statement on Auto Sector where she blamed millennial's for Auto Slump.


Rohit Katwal


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