Analysis and Trade Plan - 1 October 2019

  • Broader decline on Monday was caused by NBFC and Banking sector.

  • I was trading with a bearish bias at start, but 11400 took massive support and Nifty moved up. I changed my direction because the broader trend on daily charts and 2 hourly charts is still up.

  • SGX Nifty is trading 20 points higher hinting at a positive opening for Indian Markets.

  • Dow Jones closed in positive territory.

  • RBI Monetary policy is scheduled on Friday and market may move up in the hopes of another rate cut. Also it can give market a little sideways movement till Thursday.

  • India vix fell below 16 yesterday.

  • Asian Markets are trading in green. Crude Oil and Rupee has stabilized.


Nifty

  • Nifty futures witnessed short buildup.

  • 11400 put and 11600 call witnessed major OI addition.

  • PCR at 0.75 is bearish. Immediate OTM PCR at 0.69 is also bearish.

  • Monthly OI is also bearish.

  • If 11540 on spot is not broken after opening, then I will clear my bullish positions and go short or sideways.

Bank Nifty

  • Bank Nifty futures also witnessed short buildup.

  • Max Pain came down and PCR at 0.49 is bearish.

  • Call writing was all around above 29500 strikes.

  • Puts were unwinded on all strikes.

  • Any upside rally can come above 30000 only. Till then it is short.

  • I dont have any position on Bank Nifty.

I will wait for opening. If we move up, then will close my positions in profit and will go short.


Rohit Katwal

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