Analysis and Game Plan - 9 January 2019
Last time Bank Nifty made high, it was at 28300. We are just 800 points away now. Low we made was 24000. So after rising 3500 points, we are being bullish by majority. That is the illusion of fear and greed demonstrated by stock market.
Dow Jones was up 1% yesterday which will add to bullish momentum here.
SGX Nifty is up by 80 to 90 points signalling a positive gapup opening.
Nifty has been under performing Bank Nifty for quite some time, and a break of 10840 can even take it to break the higher side of 11000.
India Vix fell yesterday.
For Nifty, pain is constantly at 10800 and PCR is bullish. With today's up move, pain will start moving higher.
Nifty has largely remained sideways on daily, 2 hourly and 30 minute charts. Probability of it changing is high today.
We had call unwinding on almost all the strikes. So the trend is largely bullish.
For Bank Nifty, long buildup was there. And it was huge. Total OI for Bank Nifty stays between 15 - 16 lakh, but yesterday it shot up by 4 lakh.
Max pain is constantly moving up and pcr also is bullish right now.
Call writing was more than put writing.
I was on bullish side for most part of the week as the fall was not intense but rally was very fast.
Currently I am holding 20 lots of bull put spread at 27000 & 26800 spread, 10 lots of bull put spread at 27100 & 26900 spread, 2 lots of naked call sell at 25800 which all I prefer to hold till expiry, unless I get a really good opportunity. I will be adding another 16 lots today.
I am trading with bullish bias and retrace till expiry.
Here are my open positions: