Analysis and Game Plan - 6 November 2018
Yesterday's movement in Nifty and Bank Nifty was sideways.
Movement is significant, crucial and puzzling at the same time, if one looks from perspective of various time frames.
On Daily Charts, we are making a swing high. On 2 Hourly charts, we forming a channel near to resistance which calls for a little sideways move and make or break movement. So it is time to be cautious.
Unless there is some major spurts, I think we are past effects from Rupee and Crude Oil.
Big news now is US Mid Term Election Results and how US-China trade talks pan out.
Right now is a statement stage so nothing is certain. Meeting is in G20 Summit around end of November when uncertainity can kick in.
After that we had election results on 11 December 2018.
I would rather be chameleon on weekly basis then to bet on long term bullishness right now as uncertainity can hurt.
I am bullish till Diwali.
SGX Nifty is trading positive today.
Dow Jones also traded positive for most part of trading session.
India Vix moved higher yesterday since Nifty traded negative. Volatility is still in play. But it is cooling down slowly.
Max Pain and PCR for Nifty and Bank Nifty is bullish.
On Nifty, maximum call writing yesterday was at 11000 and put writing at 10500.
On Bank Nifty, we had a balance of calls and put being written which tells we might remain sideways.
Results of SBI can cause some volatility through the day.
Since the DATR is 460, I assume we can have a range of 690 between high and low from rally point of view given the vix is high.
That gives an upper range of 26400 and 25000 in case we have a strong trend.
Dont forget that we cannot have rally all the time and we are sitting at a swing high. Any upside rally will be short and downside rally on profit booking will be catastrophic.
Conclusion - I am trading with bullish bias, but ready to turn bearish if 26570 is broken. I will turn bullish if 26720 is broken.
Game Plan -
My positions should be allright based on expected opening.
I have updated the sheet for the same.
I will look to close all positions at once in first 15 minutes.
I will do expiry trading post 09:45 am.
Post 26800, I will start writing puts.
Here are the open positions -