Analysis and Game Plan - 6 November 2018

  • Yesterday's movement in Nifty and Bank Nifty was sideways.

  • Movement is significant, crucial and puzzling at the same time, if one looks from perspective of various time frames.

  • On Daily Charts, we are making a swing high. On 2 Hourly charts, we forming a channel near to resistance which calls for a little sideways move and make or break movement. So it is time to be cautious.

  • Unless there is some major spurts, I think we are past effects from Rupee and Crude Oil.

  • Big news now is US Mid Term Election Results and how US-China trade talks pan out.

  • Right now is a statement stage so nothing is certain. Meeting is in G20 Summit around end of November when uncertainity can kick in.

  • After that we had election results on 11 December 2018.

  • I would rather be chameleon on weekly basis then to bet on long term bullishness right now as uncertainity can hurt.

  • I am bullish till Diwali.

  • SGX Nifty is trading positive today.

  • Dow Jones also traded positive for most part of trading session.

  • India Vix moved higher yesterday since Nifty traded negative. Volatility is still in play. But it is cooling down slowly.

  • Max Pain and PCR for Nifty and Bank Nifty is bullish.

  • On Nifty, maximum call writing yesterday was at 11000 and put writing at 10500.

  • On Bank Nifty, we had a balance of calls and put being written which tells we might remain sideways.

  • Results of SBI can cause some volatility through the day.

  • Since the DATR is 460, I assume we can have a range of 690 between high and low from rally point of view given the vix is high.

  • That gives an upper range of 26400 and 25000 in case we have a strong trend.

  • Dont forget that we cannot have rally all the time and we are sitting at a swing high. Any upside rally will be short and downside rally on profit booking will be catastrophic.

Conclusion - I am trading with bullish bias, but ready to turn bearish if 26570 is broken. I will turn bullish if 26720 is broken.

Game Plan -

  • My positions should be allright based on expected opening.

  • I have updated the sheet for the same.

  • I will look to close all positions at once in first 15 minutes.

  • I will do expiry trading post 09:45 am.

  • Post 26800, I will start writing puts.

Here are the open positions -

2 November 2018 - 6 November 2018.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

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