Analysis and Game Plan - 29 October 2018

  • Markets are at multi week low. Its not at point to go short or long either.

  • SGX Nifty is up 60 points. It was up 100 points.

  • I am also monitoring the 14 days average of Nifty Future VWAP. It is at 10335. I will assume that we need to bounce post 10350 for any uptrend right now.

  • Interestingly, my 30 bar channel breakout is also at 10300.

  • Future OI indicates short being added.

  • Max Pain moved down to 10400. PCR is high at 1.30, but it came down from 1.34.

  • India Vix agan rose to 19.23.

  • Call and Put writing is normal right now and not much speculation is there.

  • Call writing was seen at 10100/10400/10500/10600/10700.

  • Put writing was seen at 10000/9800/9600/9500.

  • Technically, we are bearish on daily, 2 hourly and 30 minutes chart.

  • On Bank Nifty, we can be on journey towards 24000/23500.

  • Technical Charts are weak.

  • Future OI showed short position in bank nifty.

  • Max Pain is down to 24700 and PCR is down to 0.41.

  • From 24700 to 25500, there was only call writing. There was some put writing at 24000.

Conclusion -

  • Overall trend is weak.

  • Cannot rule out a bouce back.

  • 24700 to 24900 and even 25000 looks good for taking short in bank nifty.

  • 10200 to 10300 looks good for taking short in nifty.

  • Projections are for today. Data will change tomorrow and so does the projection.

Game Plan -

  • Not planning to trade till 12:00 pm.

  • I will add some shorts below 24340 as it will be break of a recent low and it must sustain below 24300.

  • Any break of 24800 may also be a double bottom formation and I would add some longs.

  • I will have to monitor nifty also. Nifty has already brokern the low that would have formed a double bottom.

  • It means that with the fall in nifty, bank nifty is out performing.

  • If things didnt seem clearn, I might not take a trade at all.

Rohit Katwal

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