Analysis and Game Plan - 28 November 2018
When we go down, we have trap moves to upside. When we go up, we have trap moves to downside.
This is what happened yesterday. Bank Nifty broke 26300 for 5 minutes, just to reverse with momentum. Same happened day before yesterday.
India Vix fell by more than 10%.
Nifty Pain is steady at 10600 while PCR moved to 1.77 which is bullish.
There is not much speculation on Nifty future.
We may expire between 10500 and 10800 according to data.
Trend seems bullish in all time frames for now.
For Bank Nifty, things are getting normal I suppose. From ATR max of 600, we have moved back to a range of 300 for an average period of 14 days.
Future OI seems bullish.
Pain and PCR is constantly moving up.
Trend is bullish for now.
There is no major development as far as Dow Jones, SGX Nifty, Crude Oil or Rupee is concerned. All are in favor right now.
Conclusion: Trading with sideways to bullish bias.
Game Plan: Since the momentum will stop because of expiry unwinding and profit booking, I will look to execute naked calls collecting 20 to 25 points.
My bull put spread at 26000, 25800 & 26100, 25900 are working fine. If premium squeezed further, then I will square it off for new position.
Momentum is slowing down, So I am expecting market to go little sideways with bullish bias. In the both the cases my diagonal put calendar and diagonal call calendar will go fine. I expect market to rise but, it will be beneficial in little expiry. I am targeting 30 points profit in both calendars. Might exit if achieved.
Here are my open positions: