Analysis and Game Plan - 25 October 2018
Dow Jones tumbled yesterday by -2.41%.
SGX Nifty is trading negative.
Hong Seng futures is down -2%.
We are opening gap down today.
It is time for expiry trading so I will not constantly update my blog.
I have to admit, past 4 days of movement was worst. Although my positions were all safe, but it did gave me a headache yesterday.
Nifty Max Pain Continued to move down.
PCR is still bearish.
Future OI turned positive and Option OI on call side was not much visible apart from call unwinding at 10500 onwards which could be due to less premium.
Put writing was visible across 10200, 10100 and 10000.
Put writing on November month 10000 was there.
Technically, we are bearish on daily and 2 hourly charts and little sideways on 30 min charts. So the overall trend remains bearish.
Bank Nifty has expired literally at the same point for last 4 expiries.100-150 points here and there from 25000. We can see something different today. Lets see.
Future OI is indecisive for Bank Nifty.
Max pain and PCR remained unchanged and is bearish.
There was not much call writing or put writing yesterday.
Technical charts are all sideways.
If we find a trend on bank nifty, we may see a 700 point rally as atr is at 483 and 600-700 is new normal these days.
Result lf Yes Bank are pending today. And result of ICICI Bank are tomorrow.
Overall trend is bearish.
Nifty has strong support at 10000.
Bank Nifty is sideways and can swing any way.
Game Plan -
With probable gap down or flat opening, I will slowly exit my positions on need basis of margin for expiry trading below Rs. 3.
I will do expiry trading, so wont be updating my blog frequently like normal days.
Below 24800, I will trade with bearish bias.
Above 25300, I will trade with bullish bias.
I will keep writing calls, unless there is decisive breach to the upside.
If some position goes against me, I will either close or hedge it in 1:10 ratio.
Open positions as of now are: -