Analysis and Game Plan - 23 October 2018
Another volatile session. Bank Nifty gave a fake movement to the upside and then Kotak and Indusindbk started the fall.
Bank Nifty did not fall much because of gapup opening of HDFC Bank and strong movement in ICICI Bank.
Vix shot up to 21.36. It is better to remain in sell side on far away call options.
Max Pain and PCR for Nifty came further down.
Bank Nifty and Nifty did not witness much speculation today.
PCR for Bank Nifty came down, while max pain is steady.
Bank Nifty also witnessed some support between 25000-25100.
Looking at Bank Nifty Constituent, we may break to downside tomorrow.
Technically, we are bearish on daily, 2 hourly and 30 minute charts.
SGX Nifty is down 86 points as of now and can give us a gapdown start.
Dow Jones closed 0.5% lower, but it made a bearish formation on daiy charts.
Crude Oil is well below $80 mark as of now. Any spike above $80 can bring in panic.
Rupee also hasnt strengthened much.
I am trading with a bearish bias.
Nifty may head towards 10160 10180 before bouncing as per option data.
Expecting Bank Nifty to move further down.
PCR is at 0.71. When PCR reaches between 0.50 to 0.60, we witness a sharp upmove.
Only 3 days left for monthly expiry. Keeping room for a 700 point rally to upside from point of entry, I will look to sell some diagonal call calenders.
Game Plan -
I am holding my bear call spread of -5 X 25500 and +5 X 25700. It will cover for losses I incurred today plus some profit.
I added one naked call of -1 X 25600.
I am targetting for 35-40 points per trade.
I will add some diagonal call calenders and will take 4 lots. 2 lots at around 11:20 and 2 at around 2:30 pm.
Bank Nifty opens gapup - I will add straight away bear call spread or Call Ratio Spreads.
Bank Nifty opens flat - Wait and watch
Bank Nifty opens gap down - I will write some diagonal call calender spreads.
Open positions as of now are: -