Analysis and Game Plan - 19 December 2018

  • I was getting sideways bias yesterday because future OI is not having much activity, yet all the other parameters were positive.

  • We got a trend reversal on 15 minute followed by a 30 minute charts.

  • I made an error trade at the end and sold a bear call spread. Good thing is that I sold 400 points away and there is only day left for expiry, so I can still be saved. Also the position is hedged.

  • Yesterday, US markets opened and stayed in green ahead of FED meet, but it doesn't matter as it was a retrace after a bearish phase.

  • SGX Nifty touched 11000 after a long time and today we may open gapup looking at the trends.

  • ICICI Bank ADR is up 4% and HDFC Bank is up 1% which can cause Bank Nifty to open higher by 100-150 points today.

  • While speculation is not much in Future, option writing is visible.

  • Good news is introduction of Nifty weekly options, which will give me another ticker to trade apart from Bank Nifty. Date of start is yet to be announced by NSE.

  • Pain for Bank Nifty and Nifty is constantly moving up along with PCR indicating bullish trend.

Conclusion: Trading with bullish bias

Game Plan:

  • Expecting a gapup in Bank Nifty and Nifty today.

  • Worst case scenario is Bank Nifty shooting more than 300 points today.

  • Good thing is that any failure to move up will benefit premiums in my favor.

Rohit Katwal

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