Analysis and Game Plan - 19 December 2018
I was getting sideways bias yesterday because future OI is not having much activity, yet all the other parameters were positive.
We got a trend reversal on 15 minute followed by a 30 minute charts.
I made an error trade at the end and sold a bear call spread. Good thing is that I sold 400 points away and there is only day left for expiry, so I can still be saved. Also the position is hedged.
Yesterday, US markets opened and stayed in green ahead of FED meet, but it doesn't matter as it was a retrace after a bearish phase.
SGX Nifty touched 11000 after a long time and today we may open gapup looking at the trends.
ICICI Bank ADR is up 4% and HDFC Bank is up 1% which can cause Bank Nifty to open higher by 100-150 points today.
While speculation is not much in Future, option writing is visible.
Good news is introduction of Nifty weekly options, which will give me another ticker to trade apart from Bank Nifty. Date of start is yet to be announced by NSE.
Pain for Bank Nifty and Nifty is constantly moving up along with PCR indicating bullish trend.
Conclusion: Trading with bullish bias
Expecting a gapup in Bank Nifty and Nifty today.
Worst case scenario is Bank Nifty shooting more than 300 points today.
Good thing is that any failure to move up will benefit premiums in my favor.