Analysis and Game Plan - 17 October 2018

  • DJIA shot 2.17% yesterday which will make sentiment positive for global markets.

  • SGX Nifty is already +116. Nifty will open gapup along with Bank Nifty. 

  • Crude Oil and Rupee seems to be stabilizing around these levels and will add to positive sentiment. 

  • Reliance results are pending today, which may create volatility as it is an index heavy weight. 

  • Nifty Future is bullish based on OI. 

  • Max Pain is at 10700 which will move high post todays gapup. 

  • PCR is slowly inching upward. 

  • Nifty closed between 10500-10600 still there was put writing at 10600 and 10500 which is ATM suggesting trend is up for coming days. 

  • Technically nifty can bounce till 10700-10800 before continuing its journey downward. On Daily charts we are still bearish. On 2 Hourly and 30 Min chart, we are sideways or its a short covering bounce. 

  • Bank Nifty is still in short covering mode. 

  • Max pain moved to 25500 and PCR to 1.17 which hints at bullish sentiment. 

  • 25700-25800 is the level it will touch before continuing its bearish trend as of now. 

  • In Bank Nifty, on daily charts we are bearish, on 2 hourly and 30 min charts we are bullish. 

Conclusion-

  • We will open gapup today on Nifty and Bank Nifty. 

  • Expected Gapup is- Nifty (+80 or +100), Bank Nifty (+200 or +300)

  • Worst Case Scenario- Nifty(+120), Bank Nifty (+400 or +500 or more)

  • Since it is weekly expiry, we may settle down after wards on Long Unwinding or covering of longs.  

Game Plan- 

  • Will manage all open positions and be on the sell side of calls for expiry intraday trading if there is a Huge gapup. '

  • There is no below that or above that scenario today as market will open gapup, so focus is on managing those open positions as positions will be expiring today. 

  1. Bull Ratio Put Spread of -5 X 24900 and +1 X25000 will be almost priced at 2 and 1, so I will let them expire worthless. I will cover if i needed margin of 5 lots. 

  2. Put Calender of -3 X 25200 and +3 X 25000 will be losing as put of 25200 might come to 2 or 3 rupee, but put of 25000 will be at 80 or 70 even. I will cover -3 X 25200 put and sell -3 X 25500 put. If after gap up, market comes down, then +3 X 25000 will also gain. 

  3. If market opens near 25850 -25900, I will hold on to bear call spreads. In any case of market coming down, its premium will decay very fast. 

  4. Will do expiry trading post 09:35am. 

Here are my open positions: -

12 October - 17 October.xlsx

Rohit Katwal

20 views

Recent Posts

See All