Analysis and Game Plan - 16 October 2018

Bank Nifty took support at 25200 and after shuffling my positions for a bit, I sticked with Bull Put Spread. Here are my open positions: -

12 October - 18 October 2018.xlsx

  • Bank Nifty has to close above 25520 to continue the upmove. 

  • Bullish trend will reverse to sideways if 25140 is breached and I will have to reverse positions. 

  • There is not much speculation on Bank Nifty right now. 

  • Bank Nifty max pain is stable at 25200. Any breakk to 25520 will move max pain higher and we will be in bullish teritory. 

  • PCR is constantly moving up on Bank Nifty for last 3 days which is a bullish signal. 

  • Bank Nifty, on daily charts is still bearish and retracing. 2 Hourly and 30 Min charts are still sideways. 

  • Nifty, witnessed short covering and long buildup yesterday.

  • Max Pain is at 10700 for last few days and PCR is hovering at 0.99 which is neutral signal. 

  • Call Writing was more on 10700, 10800, 10900 counters as compared to put writing on lower counters suggesting markets can move till 10700+ as of now before retracing. 

  • Daily charts and 2 hourly charts are bearish as of now. Only 30 minute charts have turned bullish. 

  • India Vix also shot up yesterday to 18.89. 

  • Rupee and Crudeoil are not rallying as they were previously. It is a good sign. 

  • It is results season, so we can expect volatility due to heavy weights. Infy and Heromotoco results are today. Tomorrow it is Reliance. On Saturday, it is HDFCBank. 

Conclusion- Sideways to bullish bias with some volatility. 

Game Plan: - Expecting Bank Nifty to break 25520. Will add 6 Lots of hedged bullish positions above 25520 at intervals. 

  1. Bank Nifty opens gap down - Breaks 25140, will cover positions and write call ratio spreads. 

  2. Bank Nifty opens flat and remains between 25200 and 25450 - Based on momentum and conditions, will write put ratio spreads. 

  3. Bank Nifty opens flat and breaks to upside - Will write put ratio spreads. 

  4. Bank Nifty opens flat and breaks to downside - Will write call ratio spread after covering my open positions. 

  5. Bank Nifty opens gapup above 25520 - Near 25540 will write put ratio spreads. 

Rohit Katwal

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