Analysis and Game Plan - 16 October 2018
Bank Nifty took support at 25200 and after shuffling my positions for a bit, I sticked with Bull Put Spread. Here are my open positions: -
Bank Nifty has to close above 25520 to continue the upmove.
Bullish trend will reverse to sideways if 25140 is breached and I will have to reverse positions.
There is not much speculation on Bank Nifty right now.
Bank Nifty max pain is stable at 25200. Any breakk to 25520 will move max pain higher and we will be in bullish teritory.
PCR is constantly moving up on Bank Nifty for last 3 days which is a bullish signal.
Bank Nifty, on daily charts is still bearish and retracing. 2 Hourly and 30 Min charts are still sideways.
Nifty, witnessed short covering and long buildup yesterday.
Max Pain is at 10700 for last few days and PCR is hovering at 0.99 which is neutral signal.
Call Writing was more on 10700, 10800, 10900 counters as compared to put writing on lower counters suggesting markets can move till 10700+ as of now before retracing.
Daily charts and 2 hourly charts are bearish as of now. Only 30 minute charts have turned bullish.
India Vix also shot up yesterday to 18.89.
Rupee and Crudeoil are not rallying as they were previously. It is a good sign.
It is results season, so we can expect volatility due to heavy weights. Infy and Heromotoco results are today. Tomorrow it is Reliance. On Saturday, it is HDFCBank.
Conclusion- Sideways to bullish bias with some volatility.
Game Plan: - Expecting Bank Nifty to break 25520. Will add 6 Lots of hedged bullish positions above 25520 at intervals.
Bank Nifty opens gap down - Breaks 25140, will cover positions and write call ratio spreads.
Bank Nifty opens flat and remains between 25200 and 25450 - Based on momentum and conditions, will write put ratio spreads.
Bank Nifty opens flat and breaks to upside - Will write put ratio spreads.
Bank Nifty opens flat and breaks to downside - Will write call ratio spread after covering my open positions.
Bank Nifty opens gapup above 25520 - Near 25540 will write put ratio spreads.