Analysis and Game Plan - 15 November 2018

  • For a mere ₹2000/- I did not want to hold positions yesterday.

  • Dow Jones is down -0.81%.

  • SGX Nifty is up by 30 points and is facing resistance from yesterday.

  • Crude Oil has reached $66. In October we were at $83 and further talking about reaching $100.

  • Crude Oil fall has been good for India, but any further fall can cause panic as it signifies the slowing of global growth. There was a report which mentions a fall in crude oil prices linked to slowing Chinese demand as it is one of the biggest oil importers.

  • INR is slowly strengthening.

  • India Vix is refusing to come down. It will take time to cool off.

  • Yesterday, Bank Nifty outperformed Nifty.

  • What was once a bearish retrace on Nifty & Bank Nifty changed to consolidation and is now a resistance struggle.

  • Nifty witnessed long unwinding yesterday, while long positions were added to Bank Nifty.

  • Pain and PCR are steady for Nifty but is constantly rising for Bank Nifty.

  • Option speculation was not much on Nifty but call writing was slightly higher than put writing.

  • On Bank Nifty, put writing was more than call writing. Some lower strike puts were unwinded suggesting support is moving up.

Conclusion – Since I am not holding any positions, I am not biased to any direction right now. If market open gaps up or gap down, I will be selling calls. If it opens flat between previous levels, then I am considering to wait before taking any trade and reevaluate.

Note – Will not be updating my blog today due to expiry trading.

Rohit Katwal

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