Analysis and Game Plan - 03 January 2019

  • I think we have achieved a temporary top for now and volatility will surge in coming days.

  • Dow jones closed positive yesterday after opening 350 points down.

  • Despite fall in Indian Markets, sgx nifty was again up yesterday at around 10900.

  • This is the longest streak of volatility and an uncertainty I have seen. I haven't witnessed this type of volatility in 2012, 2014, 2016 when things were bad.

  • US Senate will meet today post our markets for resolution on Government shutdown.

  • On daily and 2 hourly charts, we are in sideways direction. On 30 minute charts, we are bearish.

  • Max Pain for Nifty and Bank Nifty moved down. PCR for Nifty is still bullish, whereas bank nifty has gone bearish with huge call writing yesterday.

  • But put unwinding at 27000 was not huge and it still has the max oi among puts. 27500 has the maximum oi in calls.

  • I am currently holding a bear call spread which I will cover in and around market opening to lower my losses as market is going to be unpredictable today.

  • Going forward, I am going to lower my margins of profit to beat the uncertainty. Going 1000 point here and there has been a new normal for Bank Nifty and at the end it settles at the same point it started by giving whipsaws.

  • I am expecting a gap down or a normal opening and then we may rise.

Rohit Katwal


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