Analysis - 28 December 2018

  • What an expiry! For December, I made a total profit of ₹21,274/-. I traded with only 1/3rd of my capital for 3 weeks after skipping the election week. I will continue to trade with half my capital till normalcy returns. I will decide on Monday.

  • Bank Nifty kept swinging between 100 or 200 point for the whole day and still didn't gave any clue as to what can happen.

  • Dow Jones closed 230 points up after giving a swing of 900 points for second day. Day before it gave a swing of 1000 points.

  • Another date to closely watch is 3rd January when democrats get the house back for vote on border wall.

  • 2018 has so far been the most volatile trading year I have seen in last 10 years.

  • With the extent of technology and connectivity, it is like every minute some good or bad news is pouring into markets which makes variables to take into account for trading one too many to factor in. Its like this market right now is made to make people lose.

  • In December, we closed almost where we started at the start of the month.

  • Good thing is that it doesn't last forever.

  • India's fiscal deficit reached 115% of budget estimates. I do not know whether this news will have any effect on market.

  • SGX Nifty is up 60 points right now.

  • Crude and INR are not in worrying list right now.

  • New expiry has just started so it is rather early to say what kind of trend is forming.

  • On Nifty, positions are taken for a month so call and put writing was evident on all strikes.

  • On Bank Nifty, call writing was relatively more but pain moved up due to gapup while PCR remained down.

  • We are Bullish to sideways on daily and 2 hourly charts and bearish on 30 minutes chart. It has to come in sync which broadly tells me that trend is sideways right now. I will give it a day or two to take a position.

Rohit Katwal

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