19 October 2018

  • Last weekly expiry was one of the worst again. 

  • Despite opening with expected gapup, we did not witness a single short covering rally. 

  • I was earning 18000 by 3 pm. Expecting short covering I sold 25200 puts which I had to exit in panic. My total profit for the day remained to Rs. 3000/-.

  • It upsets me, but it is part of the game. We have up days, we have down days. 

  • Volatility is making things tough, but it will not remain for ever. 

  • For last 4 expiries, we had bank nifty closing at almost the same points after giving wild movements. Give or take 100-200 points. People usually lose all their capitals in such time. I know, as I have experienced this when I was a beginner.

  • Week ended in profit, which matters. You have to be in the game to play the game. And first rule is to preserve the capital. 

  • Market is yet to respond to results of Reliance. 

  • On Saturday, we have results of HDFC Bank scheduled. 

  • Trade setups of all kind are a mess right now. Technical or fundamental, we have no direction. Its better to sit at sides and wait for clarity. 

  • Rupee and Crude Oil as I previously said has settled. It will not affect our market unless there is some news or violent movement. 

  • For Nifty, pain did not shift from 10700. PCR came down to .85 followed by call writing on all counters 10500/10600/10700/10800. 

  • Put unwinding was seen at 10500/10400/10300/10200. 

  • For Bank Nifty also, pain did not shift from 25500. There was call writing on far away strikes only i.e. 25500/25700/26000 and hardly any put writing. 

Conclusion-

  • We may open flat owning to negative movement in US markets which will be negative and stabilizing or rupee and crude which is positive.

  • Bias remains sideways to bearish.  

  • I will not be taking position as there is no certainity based on any kind of data. 

  • I might be wrong on my view and there might be over night developments, but knowing that HDFC Bank results are pending on saturday; and two days are enough to create any kind of positivity and negativity, I wont be taking any risk before monday afternoon. 

Update - As of now SGX Nifty down by 150 points after Dow Jones fell. We can have a gap down opening tomorrow. And who knows again a gap up on monday. 

Rohit Katwal

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