12 October - 18 October 2018

12 October 2018

  • I refrained from expiry trading this thursday as there was a lot of volatility. 

  • As I previously mentioned trend is down on BankNifty unless 25600 is not breached. 

  • It seemed like we are going to be in bull territory for a while now based on the move on Friday (Based on sentiment). 

  • We revolved at 25350 to 25450 for whole day, due to which I shifted positions thrice. Its like selling on the top. It can also break to the upside, but the trend is down, so I took a Bear Call Spread with less quantity.  

  • Technically, daily charts are sideways, 2 hourly charts are sideways, 30 min charts are sideways. We had a bullish candle on Weekly.

  • Not much adition of OI on Bank Nifty futures. It was negligible. 

  • Pain moved up to 25200, but I am still waiting for it to move past 25300 in sync with breaking 25600. 

  • PCR came down to 1.11 from 1.2 and 1.48 respectively. 

  • Vix has cooled but it will take time for volatility to recede. 

  • Crude has come down, but Rupee has not. Although some consider it stable. 

There is not much speculation as of right now. Monday and Tuesday might give some direction. 

Game Plan: Will take 2 Lots in the middle of day. Depending on days price action, 2 lots at the eod. Will cover and shift as needed.  

  1. Bank Nifty opens above 25550 - Will cover my bear call spread and write some hedged bullish strategy.

  2. Bank Nifty opens below 25300 and starts inching upward - Cautious near 25500 and may be cover to write new bullish strategies based on OI at around 11:30am and 3:10pm. 

  3. Bank Nifty opens below 25300 and starts going down - Below 25100, will write more bearish strategies. Failure to go below 25100, will cover bear call spread and write some bullish strategies. 

  4. Bank Nifty opens flat and remains between 25250 and 25530 - Wait and watch moment to monitor OI and possible trend. Will be based on momentum. 

  5. Bank Nifty opens gap down - Write bearish strategies. 

Tradebook for 3rd week of October is below: -

12 October - 18 October 2018.xlsx

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